2004 United States presidential election in Wisconsin

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United States presidential election in Wisconsin, 2004

← 2000November 2, 20042008 →
 John F. Kerry.jpgGeorge-W-Bush.jpeg
NomineeJohn KerryGeorge W. Bush
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Home stateMassachusettsTexas
Running mateJohn EdwardsDick Cheney
Electoral vote100
Popular vote1,489,5041,478,120
Percentage49.70%49.32%

WisconsinPresidentialElection2004.svg
County Results

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Wisconsin took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 10 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Wisconsin was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 0.4% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a toss-up, or swing state. The state had similar demographics and was a showdown state just like its bordering states: Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa. On election day, Senator Kerry barely carried the state over President George W. Bush. The results were nearly identical to the 2000 election, when Al Gore squeaked by Bush. As of the 2016 Presidential Election, this would be the most recent time when Wisconsin did not back the overall winning candidate of the Electoral College. Additionally, this was only the third time since 1960 (the other years occurring four years earlier in 2000, along with 1988) it would vote for the losing candidate.

Primaries

  • Wisconsin Democratic primary, 2004

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Slight Democrat
  2. Associated Press: Toss-Up
  3. CNN: Bush
  4. Cook Political Report: Toss-Up
  5. Newsweek: Toss-Up
  6. New York Times: Toss-Up
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Toss-Up
  8. Research 2000: Toss-Up
  9. Washington Post: Battleground
  10. Washington Times: Battleground
  11. Zogby International: Kerry
  12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling

Pre-election polling had Bush and Kerry winning polls, with neither candidate grasping a strong lead. The last 3 poll average showed Bush leading 49% to 46%.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $1,993,040.[3] Kerry raised $1,130,602.[4]

Advertising and visits

Bush visited the state 12 times. Kerry visited the state 14 times.[5] A total of between $1.3 million to $3.6 million was spent each week.[6]

Analysis

Wisconsin has voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in the last four elections before the sixth time in 2004. The urban centers of Milwaukee and Madison tend to vote strongly Democratic. The suburbs of those cities are politically diverse, but tend to vote Republican. Counties in the western part of the state tend to be liberal, a tradition passed down from Scandinavian immigrants. The rural areas in the northern and eastern part of the state are the most solidly Republican areas in Wisconsin.[citation needed]

The CNN exit polls showed a dead heat between the two. However, the deciding factor for Kerry's victory was union members who voted for him with 62%, while non-members (83% of the population) voted for Bush with just 52% of the vote.[7]

Results

United States presidential election in Wisconsin, 2004
PartyCandidateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
DemocraticJohn Forbes Kerry1,489,50449.7%10
RepublicanGeorge Walker Bush (Incumbent)1,478,12049.3%0
IndependentRalph Nader16,3900.6%0
LibertarianMichael Badnarik6,4640.2%0
GreenDavid Cobb2,6610.1%0
Write Ins2,1170.1%0
ConstitutionMichael Peroutka8690.0%0
IndependentWalt Brown4710.0%0
IndependentRoger Calero4110.0%0
Totals2,997,007100.00%10
Voter turnout (Voting age population)72.4%

Results breakdown

By county

CountyKerry%Kerry#Bush%Bush#Others%Others#
Adams52.1%5,44746.8%4,8901.1%119
Ashland63.1%5,80536.0%3,3130.9%81
Barron48.9%11,69650.3%12,0300.9%211
Bayfield60.3%5,84538.7%3,7541.0%100
Brown44.6%54,93554.5%67,1731.0%1,186
Buffalo52.7%3,99846.1%3,5021.2%91
Burnett48.3%4,49950.9%4,7430.8%79
Calumet40.7%10,29058.2%14,7211.0%265
Chippewa48.3%14,75150.6%15,4501.1%323
Clark46.1%6,96652.7%7,9661.3%193
Columbia48.4%14,30050.6%14,9561.0%299
Crawford55.0%4,65643.5%3,6801.5%123
Dane66.0%181,05233.0%90,3691.0%2,828
Dodge37.6%16,69061.4%27,2011.0%445
Door47.8%8,36750.9%8,9101.2%214
Douglas65.7%16,53733.5%8,4480.8%202
Dunn52.0%12,03946.9%10,8791.1%254
Eau Claire54.2%30,06844.5%24,6531.3%716
Florence36.5%99362.5%1,7031.0%28
Fond du Lac36.2%19,21662.8%33,2911.0%529
Forest48.7%2,50950.6%2,6080.7%36
Grant50.9%12,86448.3%12,2080.8%192
Green52.5%9,57546.6%8,4971.0%176
Green Lake35.4%3,60563.6%6,4721.0%101
Iowa56.8%7,12242.6%5,3480.6%72
Iron50.4%1,95648.6%1,8841.0%39
Jackson54.0%5,24945.1%4,3870.9%90
Jefferson42.6%17,92556.5%23,7761.0%414
Juneau46.3%5,73452.3%6,4731.4%172
Kenosha52.5%40,10746.6%35,5871.0%734
Kewaunee45.9%5,17553.0%5,9701.1%128
La Crosse53.4%33,17045.5%28,2891.1%677
Lafayette52.5%4,40246.8%3,9290.7%57
Langlade42.9%4,75156.3%6,2350.8%88
Lincoln47.7%7,48451.1%8,0241.2%192
Manitowoc46.8%20,65252.1%23,0271.1%481
Marathon45.4%30,89953.5%36,3941.1%766
Marinette45.8%10,19053.3%11,8661.0%214
Marquette44.7%3,78554.3%4,6041.0%88
Menominee82.6%1,41216.8%2880.6%10
Milwaukee61.7%297,65337.4%180,2870.9%4,296
Monroe45.9%8,97353.1%10,3751.1%206
Oconto43.1%8,53455.8%11,0431.1%217
Oneida47.5%10,46451.5%11,3511.0%224
Outagamie44.6%40,16954.3%48,9031.1%978
Ozaukee33.4%17,71465.8%34,9040.8%414
Pepin53.6%2,18145.6%1,8530.8%32
Pierce51.1%11,17647.7%10,4371.2%263
Polk47.5%11,17351.5%12,0951.0%235
Portage56.1%21,86142.5%16,5461.4%554
Price49.6%4,34949.2%4,3121.2%102
Racine47.5%48,22951.6%52,4560.9%884
Richland47.8%4,50151.3%4,8360.9%83
Rock57.9%46,59841.2%33,1510.9%730
Rusk48.2%3,82050.3%3,9851.5%122
St. Croix44.9%18,78454.2%22,6790.9%372
Sauk51.6%15,70847.4%14,4151.0%294
Sawyer46.7%4,41152.4%4,9511.0%91
Shawano41.2%8,65757.9%12,1500.9%192
Sheboygan44.1%27,60855.0%34,4580.9%559
Taylor40.1%3,82958.5%5,5821.4%132
Trempealeau57.4%8,07541.8%5,8780.8%109
Vernon53.4%7,92445.6%6,7741.0%147
Vilas40.8%5,71358.2%8,1551.0%134
Walworth39.6%19,17759.4%28,7541.1%515
Washburn49.2%4,70549.8%4,7621.0%100
Washington29.3%21,23469.9%50,6410.8%592
Waukesha32.0%73,62667.3%154,9260.8%1,811
Waupaca40.0%10,79259.1%15,9410.9%241
Waushara42.9%5,25756.2%6,8880.8%101
Winnebago46.2%40,94352.5%46,5421.3%1,111
Wood47.3%18,95051.4%20,5921.3%529

By congressional district

Bush and Kerry each won four congressional districts.[8]

DistrictBushKerryRepresentative
1st54%46%Paul Ryan
2nd37%62%Tammy Baldwin
3rd48%51%Ron Kind
4th30%70%Jerry Kleczka
Gwen Moore
5th63%36%Jim Sensenbrenner
6th56%43%Tom Petri
7th49%50%Dave Obey
8th55%44%Mark Andrew Green

Electors

Technically the voters of Wisconsin cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Wisconsin is allocated 10 electors because it has 8 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 10 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 10 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 10 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards.

  1. Gail Gabrelian
  2. Margaret McEntire
  3. Jordan Franklin
  4. Martha Toran
  5. Jim Shinners
  6. Jan Banicki
  7. Daniel Hannula
  8. Steve Mellenthin
  9. Glenn Carlson
  10. Linda Honold
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